Bakery Dairy Deli/Prepared Foods National Operations

IDDBA’s ‘What’s In Store 2016’ Highlights Category Trends

What's in store cover

“What’s in Store 2016,” the latest edition of the annual trends publication of the International Dairy-Deli-Bakery Association (IDDBA), and What’s in Store Online, a collection of 150 downloadable tables, as well as white papers and trends articles, are now available. With 30 years of credible reporting, What’s in Store is an essential dairy-deli-supermarket food service-bakery-cheese resource providing vital data on the retail and market trends, growth and category changes shaping the food industry.

A secondary research report, What’s in Store is developed through both interviews with industry experts and sourcing of third-party data and trends. (A complete listing of sources is available at the IDDBA website.)

This year’s edition has a more continuous storyline to improve user efficiency and provide greater clarity for professionals needing to understand today’s retail world. Through five themes, readers gain new insights and learn about marketplace influences. They are: The Economy & Retail Trends; Channels and Competition; Consumer Lifestyles; Eating Trends; and Technology and Marketing.

This themed narrative is carried into each of the product chapters: Bakery, Cheese, Dairy and Deli. The new format, exclusive interview content and inclusion of key insights, table interpretations, data callouts and testimonials enable the reader to more efficiently tie back to the broader context and then dig deeper in each of the product sections.

Additionally, What’s in Store 2016 features redesigned tables; infographics that inform readers why the data matters; key insights; more original expert interviews; and more graphics to illustrate best-in-class examples.

Top highlights of the Economy & Retail section include:

• The top hurdles facing retailers are: slow economic growth; rising labor costs; privacy and security threats; and vulnerability to social and mass media.

• Traditional food retailers will experience a 9 percent drop in market share (from 71 percent to 62 percent) over the next 10 years as non-traditional channels like fresh format and online gain 38 percent of the food market.

• Traditional supermarkets are responding to the changing retail channel landscape by featuring full-service restaurants; smaller formats; additional services from store staff; and Millennial-focused products and services.

• Chef-inspired meal solutions and recipes, both online and in-store, is a critical perspective Millennials want from the places they shop.

Top highlights of the Channels and Competition section include:

• E-commerce sales for food and consumables increased 13.5 percent to $24.4 billion in 2014, with a predicted growth rate of 12.1 percent annually by 2019.

• The greatest percentage of increase in store count has come from channels outside of traditional food, drug and mass merchandising formats, including convenience stores, warehouse clubs and dollar stores.

• Culinary trends are moving faster through the menu adoption cycle that they ever have in the past (five to seven years, compared to 10 to 12 years).

• The definition of “health” among today’s consumers goes beyond family health, as the health of the planet and society are important factors in their purchasing decisions.

Top highlights of the Consumer Lifestyles section include:

• Millennials tend to make the majority of their food purchases in retail outlets other than traditional grocery stores. Effective communication with Millennials needs to start outside the store and be as personal as possible.

• Representing 28 percent of all households, single-person homes present opportunities for retailers offering single-serve, fresh food options and convenience, such as products found in in-store delis.

• With a projected buying power of $1.7 trillion by 2019, Hispanic Americans embrace technology and the cultures of others even as they seek out brands and products that reflect their social expectations and cultural values.

• Asian Americans spend more than other ethnic demographics on fresh produce, organic foods, eco-friendly products and online purchases.

Top highlights of the Eating Trends section include:

• According to IDDBA findings, 53 percent of shoppers are now opting for smaller snacks; 47 percent say they really enjoy anything new and different or trying new kinds of ethnic cuisine; and 61 percent are now opting for healthier snacks.

• “Local” is a quality distinction marker and signifies for consumers: greater transparency and trust; fresher and more seasonal products: good taste; and support of the proximate food economy.

• Top food trends include the shift to fresh and refrigerated foods, rather than processed foods; new snacking and mini-meal options; increased breakfast consumption; and more natural, local-sourced, organic and non-GMO products and ingredients.

• Consumers continue to seek out naturally healthy, “functional” foods with ingredients like protein; microalgae; Omega-3s; Vitamin D; and magnesium.

Top highlights of the Technology and Marketing section include:

• Online purchases of food and beverages are projected to nearly quadruple between 2015 and 2020 to $49 billion, representing 4.5 percent of all food retail sales.

• Omnichannel initiatives are the second most important business priority for retail chief information officers, with 76 percent focused on integrating channels such as e-commerce, mobile, social, catalog and stores.

• Eleven percent of global consumers are using smartphones and 8 percent are using tablets when grocery shopping; in advanced markets like the United Kingdom, the percentages rise to 20 percent and 15 percent, respectively.

• Online grocery models are proliferating, driven by advancements in digital technology and shifting consumer preferences. The “Drive” model in particular will experience a rapid rollout in the U.S. over the next five to 10 years.

Top highlights of the Bakery chapter include:

• Channels garnering a greater share of the in-store bakery market are convenience stores and Starbucks, which announced an 18 percent increase in revenue in April 2015.

• Bakery departments can better connect with shoppers through: specialty items and ingredients (gluten-free grape seed flour, sprouted grain, ethnic products); single-serve and snacking options; breakfast bakery; personalization and customization (take-n-bake bread, dessert kits); new flavors (smoked sugar and cinnamon, Middle Eastern and North African flavors, seasonal and fruits; indulgent (s’mores, red velvet, tea); product merchandising; and upscale products (wine breads, French macaroons, cabernet cheesecake).

• An emerging bakery is Chinese bakeries, which focus on single-serve pastries like small tarts, slices of Swiss roll cake and buns with fillings like red bean, roast pork, taro, cream and salted egg yolks.

• Bread trends include: premium breads, such as wine artisan bread made from grape skin and seed flour; cleaner labels and more organic options; inclusions of special ingredients and flour; gluten-free flat breads; premium ciabatta and naan options, like La Focaccina; and premium sandwich rolls.

Top highlights of the Cheese chapter include:

• Per capita cheese consumption in the U.S. is at an all-time high, with nearly 34 pounds per person. U.S. per capita cheese spending has increased by 37 percent since 2008.

• Ninety-eight percent of American households purchase cheese; 97 percent buy natural cheese and 70 percent buy processed cheese.

• More than 25 percent of shoppers visited a specialty store or natural/health food store—instead of their preferred store—to make a cheese purchase.

• Millennials are an important cheese consumer, given their desire to try new flavors and textures, as well as the belief that specialty/craft and imported cheeses are worth paying more for.

Top highlights of the Dairy chapter include:

• The overall compound annual growth rate of dairy products is projected at 3.4 percent through 2020. Additionally, overall U.S. consumption of dairy products in 2014 increased to 614 pounds per capita, up from 605 pounds in 2013.

• The majority of shoppers (93 percent) prefer to purchase dairy from traditional retailers, compared to just 7 percent who prefer fresh/specialty retailers.

• Protein is a top consideration for consumers when purchasing dairy products, as 78 percent believe it contributes to a healthy diet and 16 percent look at the amount of protein when shopping.

• The dairy department is well situated to capitalize on the “health halo” of dairy products. Positive nutrition and wellness attributes are prioritized by dairy department shoppers.

Top highlights of the Deli chapter include:

• Millennials are “super users” that shop the deli department more than Boomers and Gen Xers. They seek quick grab-and-go options; in-store chef perspectives on recipe ideas; local, healthy and fresh prepared foods; and transparency in the food they buy and consume.

• Deli departments can better connect with shoppers through: smaller meals/snacking options; creative and new products (ethnic-inspired breakfast items, non-wheat noodles/pasta, ancient grains); a health focus (clean and “free-from” labels, more transparency, authenticity, locally-sourced); adventurous food and flavors; greater digital engagement; and new and popular meat trends and flavors (sriracha, mango habanero, bacon, house-cured meats).

• Sandwich ingredient trends include: seafood; different styles of pork (e.g., pork belly, pork shoulder); sriracha; and artisan bread.

• Consumers are seeking salads that feature: herbs, yogurt and flavorful oils and vinegars instead of mayo; bigger pieces of leafy greens, vegetables and meats; chopped salads; bean salads; grain-based salads and grain medleys served hot or cold, like quinoa; and Asian and Hispanic flavors.

The purchase price of What’s in Store 2016 is $99 for IDDBA members and $399 for non-members.

About the author

Kristen Cloud

A former newspaper editor and publisher who has handled digital duties for The Shelby Report since 2011. She once enjoyed leisurely perusing the grocery store aisles but, since having a baby in 2016, is now an enthusiastic click-and-collect shopper.

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